`;
// Trading Volume Change
let volChange = { text: "Moderate Increase", class: "impact-positive-high" };
if (scores.adoptionScale[inputs.adoptionScale] >= 3 || inputs.institutionType === 'etf_provider') volChange = { text: "Significant Increase", class: "impact-positive-vhigh" };
else if (scores.adoptionScale[inputs.adoptionScale] <=1) volChange = { text: "Minor Increase", class: "impact-positive-moderate" };
impactsHTML += ``;
// Liquidity Effect
let liquidityEffect = { text: "Moderate Improvement", class: "impact-positive-high" };
if (scores.adoptionScale[inputs.adoptionScale] >= 3 && (inputs.adoptionNature === 'direct_purchase' || inputs.adoptionNature === 'etf_investment' || inputs.adoptionNature === 'trading_services')) {
liquidityEffect = { text: "Significant Improvement", class: "impact-positive-vhigh" };
} else if (scores.adoptionScale[inputs.adoptionScale] <= 1) {
liquidityEffect = { text: "Minor Improvement", class: "impact-positive-moderate" };
}
impactsHTML += ``;
// Short-Term Volatility Impact
let volatilityImpact = { text: "Increase Moderately", class: "impact-negative-moderate" }; // Default to increase with big news
if (inputs.predictionHorizon === 'long_term' && scores.techMaturity[inputs.techMaturity] >= 3 && scores.adoptionScale[inputs.adoptionScale] >=3) {
volatilityImpact = { text: "Likely to Decrease Moderately (long-term)", class: "impact-positive-moderate" };
} else if (inputs.institutionType === 'etf_provider') {
volatilityImpact = { text: "Increase Significantly (around event)", class: "impact-negative-high" };
}
impactsHTML += ``;
// Mainstream Adoption Catalyst Potential
let catalystPotential = { text: "Moderate", class: "impact-positive-high" };
if (scores.adoptionScale[inputs.adoptionScale] >= 4 && (inputs.institutionType === 'etf_provider' || inputs.institutionType === 'pension_fund' || inputs.institutionType === 'sovereign_wealth' || inputs.institutionType === 'asset_manager')) {
catalystPotential = { text: "Very High", class: "impact-positive-vhigh" };
keyDriversText += `Adoption by a ${getSelectText('institutionType').toLowerCase()} at ${getSelectText('adoptionScale').toLowerCase()} scale significantly boosts mainstream catalyst potential. `;
} else if (scores.adoptionScale[inputs.adoptionScale] <= 2) {
catalystPotential = { text: "Low", class: "impact-positive-moderate" };
}
impactsHTML += ``;
// Regulatory Scrutiny Outlook
let regScrutiny = { text: "Likely to Increase Moderately", class: "impact-neutral" };
if (scores.adoptionScale[inputs.adoptionScale] >= 3 || inputs.institutionType === 'etf_provider') {
regScrutiny = { text: "Likely to Increase Significantly", class: "impact-negative-moderate" }; // Increased scrutiny isn't always negative in effect, but it's a factor.
keyDriversText += `Significant institutional involvement, especially via products like ETFs, is expected to increase regulatory scrutiny. `;
} else if (scores.regulatoryClarity[inputs.regulatoryClarity] >= 1) {
regScrutiny = { text: "No Significant Change (due to existing clarity)", class: "impact-neutral" };
}
impactsHTML += ``;
predictedImpactsEl.innerHTML = impactsHTML;
// Key Drivers
if (!keyDriversText) keyDriversText = "The combination of various factors contributes to the overall prediction. Specific drivers become more prominent with higher impact scenarios. ";
keyDriversEl.innerHTML = `
Trading Volume Change: ${volChange.text}
Market Liquidity Effect: ${liquidityEffect.text}
Short-Term Volatility Impact: ${volatilityImpact.text}
Mainstream Adoption Catalyst Potential: ${catalystPotential.text}
Regulatory Scrutiny Outlook: ${regScrutiny.text}
- ${keyDriversText}
- This prediction is heuristic and not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly.
- Unforeseen global macroeconomic events can override specific crypto-related factors.
- The ${getSelectText('predictionHorizon').toLowerCase()} timeframe influences the relevance of certain impacts (e.g., short-term volatility vs. long-term stability).
- If regulatory sentiment shifts negatively, especially in key markets, predictions could be adversely affected.
- Success of the underlying cryptocurrency project and its technology remains a fundamental factor.