Expected Shortfall (ES) Calculator

Expected Shortfall (ES) Calculator

Calculate Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) based on historical return data.

Provide at least 20 data points for meaningful analysis. Positive values for profits, negative for losses.

Confidence Level: ${confidenceLevel}%

${initialInvestment > 0 ? `

Initial Investment: ${formatCurrency(initialInvestment)}

` : ''}

Value at Risk (VaR): ${varPercent.toFixed(2)}% ${initialInvestment > 0 ? ` (${formatCurrency(varPercent / 100 * initialInvestment)})` : ''}

With ${confidenceLevel}% confidence, the maximum expected loss over one period is ${varPercent.toFixed(2)}%. ${initialInvestment > 0 ? ` This amounts to ${formatCurrency(varPercent / 100 * initialInvestment)} on an initial investment of ${formatCurrency(initialInvestment)}.` : ''} Alternatively, there is a ${(100 - confidenceLevel).toFixed(1)}% chance that the loss will exceed this amount.


Expected Shortfall (ES): ${cvarPercent.toFixed(2)}% ${initialInvestment > 0 ? ` (${formatCurrency(cvarPercent / 100 * initialInvestment)})` : ''}

If losses exceed the VaR estimate (i.e., in the worst ${(100 - confidenceLevel).toFixed(1)}% of cases), the average expected loss (Expected Shortfall) over one period is ${cvarPercent.toFixed(2)}%. ${initialInvestment > 0 ? ` This amounts to ${formatCurrency(cvarPercent / 100 * initialInvestment)} on an initial investment of ${formatCurrency(initialInvestment)}.` : ''}

`; resultsSectionEl.style.display = 'block'; pdfDownloadBtn.style.display = 'block'; // Prepare PDF content document.getElementById('pdfReportDate').textContent = `Report generated on: ${new Date().toLocaleDateString()}`; document.getElementById('pdfConfidenceLevel').textContent = `Confidence Level: ${confidenceLevel}%`; document.getElementById('pdfInitialInvestment').textContent = initialInvestment > 0 ? `Initial Investment: ${formatCurrency(initialInvestment)}` : 'Initial Investment: Not specified'; document.getElementById('pdfNumObservations').textContent = `Number of Observations: ${n}`; document.getElementById('pdfVaRPercent').textContent = `Value at Risk (VaR): ${varPercent.toFixed(2)}%`; document.getElementById('pdfVaRValue').textContent = initialInvestment > 0 ? `VaR Monetary Value: ${formatCurrency(varPercent / 100 * initialInvestment)}` : 'VaR Monetary Value: N/A'; document.getElementById('pdfESPercent').textContent = `Expected Shortfall (ES): ${cvarPercent.toFixed(2)}%`; // Changed label document.getElementById('pdfESValue').textContent = initialInvestment > 0 ? `ES Monetary Value: ${formatCurrency(cvarPercent / 100 * initialInvestment)}` : 'ES Monetary Value: N/A'; // Changed label document.getElementById('pdfVaRInterpretation').textContent = `VaR Interpretation: With ${confidenceLevel}% confidence, the maximum expected loss is ${varPercent.toFixed(2)}%. There's a ${(100-confidenceLevel).toFixed(1)}% chance of losses exceeding this.`; document.getElementById('pdfESInterpretation').textContent = `ES Interpretation: In the worst ${(100-confidenceLevel).toFixed(1)}% of scenarios, the average expected loss (Expected Shortfall) is ${cvarPercent.toFixed(2)}%.`; // Changed label }); loadSampleBtn.addEventListener('click', function() { returnDataEl.value = sampleData; errorMessagesEl.style.display = 'none'; resultsSectionEl.style.display = 'none'; pdfDownloadBtn.style.display = 'none'; }); resetBtn.addEventListener('click', function() { returnDataEl.value = ''; confidenceLevelEl.value = '95'; initialInvestmentEl.value = '10000'; resultsSectionEl.style.display = 'none'; pdfDownloadBtn.style.display = 'none'; errorMessagesEl.style.display = 'none'; resultsOutputEl.innerHTML = ''; }); pdfDownloadBtn.addEventListener('click', function() { const elementToPrint = document.getElementById('pdfReportContent'); elementToPrint.style.display = 'block'; const opt = { margin: [15, 10, 15, 10], filename: 'expected_shortfall_analysis_report.pdf', // Updated filename image: { type: 'jpeg', quality: 0.98 }, html2canvas: { scale: 2, useCORS: true, logging: false }, jsPDF: { unit: 'mm', format: 'a4', orientation: 'portrait' } }; html2pdf().from(elementToPrint).set(opt).save().then(() => { elementToPrint.style.display = 'none'; }).catch(err => { console.error("Error generating PDF:", err); elementToPrint.style.display = 'none'; }); }); });
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