Over a simulated period of ${simulationParameters.simulationDuration} months:

`; insightsHtml += `

`; const marketReturn = (finalSimulationSummary.finalMarketValue / simulationParameters.initialCapital - 1) * 100; const rationalReturn = (finalSimulationSummary.finalRationalCapital / simulationParameters.initialCapital - 1) * 100; const biasedReturn = (finalSimulationSummary.finalBiasedCapital / simulationParameters.initialCapital - 1) * 100; insightsHtml += `
• A pure buy-and-hold market strategy would have yielded a return of ${marketReturn.toFixed(2)}%.
`; insightsHtml += `
• The Rational Investor, tracking the market, achieved a return of ${rationalReturn.toFixed(2)}%.
`; insightsHtml += `
• The Biased Investor, affected by selected biases, achieved a return of ${biasedReturn.toFixed(2)}%.
`; insightsHtml += `

`; if (biasedReturn < rationalReturn) { insightsHtml += `

The Biased Investor significantly underperformed the Rational Investor. This illustrates the potential negative impact of emotional and cognitive biases on long-term investment returns.

`; if (simulationParameters.enableFomo) { insightsHtml += `

• FOMO/Herd Mentality: Chasing rising markets often leads to buying at highs and suffering larger drawdowns. The simulation suggests this contributed to underperformance.

`; } if (simulationParameters.enableLossAversion) { insightsHtml += `

• Loss Aversion: Panic selling during market dips and missing subsequent recoveries likely impacted the biased portfolio negatively.

`; } if (simulationParameters.enableOverconfidence) { insightsHtml += `

• Overconfidence: The subtle penalties for frequent or suboptimal trading compounded over time, eroding returns.

`; } } else if (biasedReturn > rationalReturn && (simulationParameters.enableFomo || simulationParameters.enableLossAversion || simulationParameters.enableOverconfidence)) { insightsHtml += `

In this specific simulated scenario, even with biases enabled, the Biased Investor slightly outperformed or matched the Rational Investor. This highlights that randomness can sometimes mask the long-term detrimental effects of biases, but such outcomes are typically not sustainable or repeatable.

`; } else { insightsHtml += `

With no biases enabled, the Biased Investor's performance closely matched the Rational Investor, demonstrating that disciplined adherence to a strategy aligns with market returns.

`; } insightsHtml += `

Key Takeaways for Investors:

`; insightsHtml += `

`; insightsHtml += `
• Awareness is Key: Understanding your own behavioral biases is the first step to mitigating their negative impact.
`; insightsHtml += `
• Discipline Over Emotion: Sticking to a well-defined investment plan and ignoring short-term emotional impulses is crucial for long-term success.
`; insightsHtml += `
• Risk Management: Robust risk management strategies (e.g., diversification, position sizing) help protect against the amplified losses biases can cause.
`; insightsHtml += `
• Long-Term Perspective: Focus on your long-term financial goals rather than reacting to daily market fluctuations.
`; insightsHtml += `

`; bbbtInsights.innerHTML = insightsHtml; } // --- Event Listeners --- // Toggle bias parameter divs enableFomoCheckbox.addEventListener('change', () => { fomoParamsDiv.style.display = enableFomoCheckbox.checked ? 'block' : 'none'; }); fomoStrengthInput.addEventListener('input', () => { fomoStrengthValueSpan.textContent = `${fomoStrengthInput.value}%`; }); enableLossAversionCheckbox.addEventListener('change', () => { lossAversionParamsDiv.style.display = enableLossAversionCheckbox.checked ? 'block' : 'none'; }); lossAversionStrengthInput.addEventListener('input', () => { lossAversionStrengthValueSpan.textContent = `${lossAversionStrengthInput.value}%`; }); enableOverconfidenceCheckbox.addEventListener('change', () => { overconfidenceParamsDiv.style.display = enableOverconfidenceCheckbox.checked ? 'block' : 'none'; }); overconfidenceStrengthInput.addEventListener('input', () => { overconfidenceStrengthValueSpan.textContent = `${overconfidenceStrengthInput.value}%`; }); // Tab navigation tabButtons.forEach((button, index) => { if (button) { button.addEventListener('click', function() { if (!simulationRunning) { updateActiveTab(index); } else { showMessageBox("Please wait for the backtest to complete before changing tabs."); } }); } }); if (nextButton) { nextButton.addEventListener('click', function() { if (!simulationRunning && currentTabIndex < tabButtons.length - 1) { updateActiveTab(currentTabIndex + 1); } else if (simulationRunning) { showMessageBox("Please wait for the backtest to complete before navigating."); } }); } if (prevButton) { prevButton.addEventListener('click', function() { if (!simulationRunning && currentTabIndex > 0) { updateActiveTab(currentTabIndex - 1); } else if (simulationRunning) { showMessageBox("Please wait for the backtest to complete before navigating."); } }); } // Start Backtest Button if (startBacktestButton) { startBacktestButton.addEventListener('click', function() { // Input validation const initialCapital = parseFloat(initialCapitalInput.value); const simulationDuration = parseInt(simulationDurationInput.value); const marketAvgReturn = parseFloat(marketAvgReturnInput.value); const marketVolatility = parseFloat(marketVolatilityInput.value); if (isNaN(initialCapital) || initialCapital <= 0) { showMessageBox("Initial Investment Capital must be a positive number."); return; } if (isNaN(simulationDuration) || simulationDuration < 12) { showMessageBox("Simulation Duration must be at least 12 months."); return; } if (isNaN(marketAvgReturn)) { showMessageBox("Average Monthly Market Return must be a number."); return; } if (isNaN(marketVolatility) || marketVolatility < 0) { showMessageBox("Monthly Market Volatility must be a non-negative number."); return; } // Check if at least one bias is enabled if not all parameters are numeric if (!enableFomoCheckbox.checked && !enableLossAversionCheckbox.checked && !enableOverconfidenceCheckbox.checked) { // No message box needed, it's a valid scenario (rational investor vs market) // But if user expects bias impact, might be worth informing? No, let's keep it simple. } updateActiveTab(2); // Go to Backtest Simulation tab runBacktest(); }); } // PDF Download Button if (downloadPdfButton) { downloadPdfButton.addEventListener('click', async function() { if (!simulationHistory || simulationHistory.length === 0) { showMessageBox("Please run a backtest first to generate a report."); return; } const pdfContentContainer = document.createElement('div'); pdfContentContainer.style.padding = '20px'; pdfContentContainer.style.backgroundColor = '#ffffff'; pdfContentContainer.style.fontFamily = 'Inter, sans-serif'; pdfContentContainer.style.fontSize = '12px'; // PDF Title const pdfTitle = document.createElement('h1'); pdfTitle.textContent = "Behavioral Bias Backtest Report"; pdfTitle.style.textAlign = 'center'; pdfTitle.style.fontSize = '24px'; pdfTitle.style.marginBottom = '20px'; pdfTitle.style.color = '#1f2937'; pdfContentContainer.appendChild(pdfTitle); // Simulation Summary const summarySection = document.createElement('div'); summarySection.innerHTML = `

Backtest Summary:

Initial Investment	${formatCurrency(finalSimulationSummary.initialCapital)}
Simulation Duration	${simulationParameters.simulationDuration} Months
Final Market Value (Buy & Hold)	${formatCurrency(finalSimulationSummary.finalMarketValue)}
Rational Investor Final Capital	${formatCurrency(finalSimulationSummary.finalRationalCapital)}
Biased Investor Final Capital	${formatCurrency(finalSimulationSummary.finalBiasedCapital)}

`; pdfContentContainer.appendChild(summarySection); // Simulation Parameters Used const paramsSection = document.createElement('div'); paramsSection.innerHTML = `

Parameters Used:

${simulationParameters.enableFomo ? `` : ''} ${simulationParameters.enableLossAversion ? `` : ''} ${simulationParameters.enableOverconfidence ? `` : ''}

Average Monthly Market Return	${simulationParameters.marketAvgReturn}%
Monthly Market Volatility (Std. Dev.)	${simulationParameters.marketVolatility}%
FOMO Enabled	${simulationParameters.enableFomo ? 'Yes' : 'No'}
FOMO Strength	${simulationParameters.fomoStrength}%
Loss Aversion Enabled	${simulationParameters.enableLossAversion ? 'Yes' : 'No'}
Loss Aversion Strength	${simulationParameters.lossAversionStrength}%
Overconfidence Enabled	${simulationParameters.enableOverconfidence ? 'Yes' : 'No'}
Overconfidence Strength	${simulationParameters.overconfidenceStrength}%

`; pdfContentContainer.appendChild(paramsSection); // Detailed Simulation History (Every 10th month or if total months < 20, show all) const historyHtml = `

Detailed Simulation History (Selected Months):

Showing data for every 10th month and final month for brevity. All data points if duration is less than 20 months.

${simulationHistory .filter((data, index) => simulationParameters.simulationDuration < 20 || index % 10 === 0 || index === simulationHistory.length - 1) .map(data => ` `).join('')}

Month	Market Value ($)	Rational Investor ($)	Biased Investor ($)	Biased Action
${data.month}	${formatCurrency(data.marketValue)}	${formatCurrency(data.rationalCapital)}	${formatCurrency(data.biasedCapital)}	${data.biasedAction}

`; pdfContentContainer.insertAdjacentHTML('beforeend', historyHtml); // Insights const insightsHeading = document.createElement('h2'); insightsHeading.style.fontSize = '18px'; insightsHeading.style.fontWeight = '600'; insightsHeading.style.marginTop = '20px'; insightsHeading.style.marginBottom = '10px'; insightsHeading.style.color = '#374151'; insightsHeading.textContent = 'Key Insights:'; pdfContentContainer.appendChild(insightsHeading); pdfContentContainer.appendChild(bbbtInsights.cloneNode(true)); // Clone the insights div for PDF pdfContentContainer.style.position = 'absolute'; pdfContentContainer.style.left = '-9999px'; document.body.appendChild(pdfContentContainer); try { const canvas = await html2canvas(pdfContentContainer, { scale: 1.5, useCORS: true, windowWidth: pdfContentContainer.scrollWidth, windowHeight: pdfContentContainer.scrollHeight }); const imgData = canvas.toDataURL('image/jpeg', 0.8); const { jsPDF } = window.jspdf; const pdf = new jsPDF('p', 'mm', 'a4'); const imgWidth = 210; const pageHeight = 297; const imgHeight = canvas.height * imgWidth / canvas.width; let heightLeft = imgHeight; let position = 0; pdf.addImage(imgData, 'JPEG', 0, position, imgWidth, imgHeight, null, 'MEDIUM'); heightLeft -= pageHeight; while (heightLeft >= 0) { position = heightLeft - imgHeight; pdf.addPage(); pdf.addImage(imgData, 'JPEG', 0, position, imgWidth, imgHeight, null, 'MEDIUM'); heightLeft -= pageHeight; } pdf.save('Behavioral_Bias_Backtest_Report.pdf'); } catch (error) { console.error('Error generating PDF:', error); showMessageBox('Error generating PDF. Please ensure your browser supports canvas rendering and try again.'); } finally { if (pdfContentContainer.parentNode) { pdfContentContainer.parentNode.removeChild(pdfContentContainer); } } }); } // Close message box event listener if (messageBoxCloseButton) { messageBoxCloseButton.addEventListener('click', hideMessageBox); } // --- Initialization --- updateActiveTab(0); // Initialize the first tab as active on load });