AI-Based Yield Curve & Recession Probability Model
Analyze the U.S. Treasury yield curve to forecast recession probability over the next 12 months.
Enter Treasury Yields (%)
Enter the current yields for U.S. Treasury securities. The model uses the 10-Year and 3-Month spread.
Recession Probability (12-Month Horizon)
--%
10Y-3M Spread: ---
How to Interpret This Model
The calculation is based on a probit model, similar to the one used by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It uses the spread between the 10-Year and 3-Month Treasury yields as a primary predictor. A negative or "inverted" spread, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, has historically been a reliable indicator of an upcoming recession.