Retail Investor Sentiment Index

Retail Investor Sentiment Index

Input Factors Influencing Retail Investor Sentiment

Error: Total weights must sum to 100%. Please check the "Weighting & Parameters" tab.

`; return; } // Validate VIX thresholds if (vixLowThreshold >= vixHighThreshold) { showMessageBox('VIX Threshold Error', 'The "Low Volatility Threshold" must be less than the "High Volatility Threshold". Please adjust them in the "Weighting & Parameters" tab.'); resultsOutput.innerHTML = `

Error: VIX thresholds are invalid. Please check the "Weighting & Parameters" tab.

`; return; } // --- Normalize Scores (0-100, higher is more bullish/greedy) --- // Factors on 1-5 scale let scoreEconomicOutlook = scale1to5To0to100(economicOutlook); let scoreMarketPerformance = scale1to5To0to100(marketPerformance); let scoreCorporateEarningsExpectations = scale1to5To0to100(corporateEarningsExpectations); let scoreMediaSocialMediaBuzz = scale1to5To0to100(mediaSocialMediaBuzz); let scorePersonalFinancialOutlook = scale1to5To0to100(personalFinancialOutlook); let scoreIpoActivityLevel = scale1to5To0to100(ipoActivityLevel); // Market Volatility (VIX-like Index): Lower VIX = more bullish/greed. // Linear scaling between low and high thresholds. let scoreMarketVolatility; if (marketVolatility <= vixLowThreshold) { scoreMarketVolatility = 100; // Very low volatility means extreme greed } else if (marketVolatility >= vixHighThreshold) { scoreMarketVolatility = 0; // Very high volatility means extreme fear } else { // Invert and scale: 100 - ( (current - low) / (high - low) ) * 100 scoreMarketVolatility = 100 - (((marketVolatility - vixLowThreshold) / (vixHighThreshold - vixLowThreshold)) * 100); scoreMarketVolatility = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, scoreMarketVolatility)); // Clamp } // Investor Behavior - Herding: Higher herding typically implies more exuberance (greed) or panic (fear). // For simplicity, let's assume higher herding implies stronger sentiment, either positive or negative. // For a composite sentiment index, let's treat it as a factor that amplifies existing sentiment. // A neutral herding (50) would have no effect, while higher/lower would pull sentiment toward extremes. // However, for a simple linear model, a higher "Herding Tendency" often correlates with increased greed // when markets are rising, and increased fear when markets are falling. // Let's assume for this index that a higher herding implies more "greed" (exuberance) and lower implies "fear" (panic). let scoreInvestorBehaviorHerding = investorBehaviorHerding; // Already 0-100 scale // --- Calculate Overall Retail Investor Sentiment Index --- let sentimentIndex = ( (scoreEconomicOutlook * weightEconomicOutlook) + (scoreMarketPerformance * weightMarketPerformance) + (scoreMarketVolatility * weightMarketVolatility) + (scoreCorporateEarningsExpectations * weightCorporateEarningsExpectations) + (scoreMediaSocialMediaBuzz * weightMediaSocialMediaBuzz) + (scorePersonalFinancialOutlook * weightPersonalFinancialOutlook) + (scoreIpoActivityLevel * weightIpoActivityLevel) + (scoreInvestorBehaviorHerding * weightInvestorBehaviorHerding) ); // Ensure index is within 0-100 range sentimentIndex = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, sentimentIndex)); // --- Sentiment Interpretation --- let sentimentLevel = "Neutral"; let sentimentColorClass = "text-gray-600"; let interpretation = "Retail investor sentiment is currently neutral. This suggests a balanced outlook without extreme fear or greed. Continue to monitor market and economic developments closely."; let implication = "Balanced market conditions. May not present strong contrarian opportunities."; if (sentimentIndex >= 80) { sentimentLevel = "Extreme Greed"; sentimentColorClass = "text-red-700"; interpretation = "Retail investor sentiment is characterized by extreme greed. This often signals that the market is overbought and due for a correction. Exercise extreme caution."; implication = "Potential contrarian sell signal. High risk of market downturn."; } else if (sentimentIndex >= 60) { sentimentLevel = "Greed"; sentimentColorClass = "text-orange-600"; interpretation = "Retail investor sentiment indicates greed. While markets may continue to rise, this level suggests increasing complacency and potential overvaluation. Be selective with new investments."; implication = "Caution advised. Consider taking profits or hedging positions."; } else if (sentimentIndex <= 20) { sentimentLevel = "Extreme Fear"; sentimentColorClass = "text-green-700"; interpretation = "Retail investor sentiment is at extreme fear levels. This often occurs at market bottoms, presenting potential buying opportunities for long-term investors. However, short-term volatility may persist."; implication = "Potential contrarian buy signal. High reward potential, but requires patience."; } else if (sentimentIndex <= 40) { sentimentLevel = "Fear"; sentimentColorClass = "text-blue-600"; interpretation = "Retail investor sentiment is driven by fear. Markets may be undervalued or oversold. Opportunities might emerge, but continued volatility is likely. Focus on quality assets."; implication = "Consider accumulating positions selectively. Market may be near a bottom."; } // --- Display Results --- resultsOutput.innerHTML = `

Individual Factor Scores (0-100, Higher = More Bullish):

Economic Outlook Score: ${scoreEconomicOutlook.toFixed(2)}

Market Performance Score: ${scoreMarketPerformance.toFixed(2)}

Market Volatility Score: ${scoreMarketVolatility.toFixed(2)}

Corporate Earnings Expectations Score: ${scoreCorporateEarningsExpectations.toFixed(2)}

Media & Social Media Buzz Score: ${scoreMediaSocialMediaBuzz.toFixed(2)}

Personal Financial Outlook Score: ${scorePersonalFinancialOutlook.toFixed(2)}

IPO Activity Level Score: ${scoreIpoActivityLevel.toFixed(2)}

Investor Behavior (Herding) Score: ${scoreInvestorBehaviorHerding.toFixed(2)}

Overall Retail Investor Sentiment Index:

${sentimentIndex.toFixed(2)} / 100

Sentiment Level: ${sentimentLevel}

Interpretation: ${interpretation}

Implication: ${implication}

Note: This Retail Investor Sentiment Index is a simplified model based on user inputs and assumed relationships. Actual investor sentiment is influenced by a vast array of complex and often irrational factors, including real-time market data, news events, social media trends, and individual psychological biases. This tool is for illustrative and educational purposes only and should not be used as a sole basis for investment decisions. Investing in financial markets involves substantial risk.

`; } // PDF Download Functionality downloadPdfBtn.addEventListener('click', function() { const { jsPDF } = window.jspdf; const doc = new jsPDF(); // Recalculate values for PDF to ensure consistency const economicOutlook = getValidatedFloat(economicOutlookInput); const marketPerformance = getValidatedFloat(marketPerformanceInput); const marketVolatility = getValidatedFloat(marketVolatilityInput); const corporateEarningsExpectations = getValidatedFloat(corporateEarningsExpectationsInput); const mediaSocialMediaBuzz = getValidatedFloat(mediaSocialMediaBuzzInput); const personalFinancialOutlook = getValidatedFloat(personalFinancialOutlookInput); // Corrected const ipoActivityLevel = getValidatedFloat(ipoActivityLevelInput); // Corrected const investorBehaviorHerding = getValidatedFloat(investorBehaviorHerdingInput); // Corrected const weightEconomicOutlook = getValidatedFloat(weightEconomicOutlookInput) / 100; const weightMarketPerformance = getValidatedFloat(weightMarketPerformanceInput) / 100; const weightMarketVolatility = getValidatedFloat(weightMarketVolatilityInput) / 100; const weightCorporateEarningsExpectations = getValidatedFloat(weightCorporateEarningsExpectationsInput) / 100; const weightMediaSocialMediaBuzz = getValidatedFloat(weightMediaSocialMediaBuzzInput) / 100; const weightPersonalFinancialOutlook = getValidatedFloat(weightPersonalFinancialOutlookInput) / 100; const weightIpoActivityLevel = getValidatedFloat(weightIpoActivityLevelInput) / 100; const weightInvestorBehaviorHerding = getValidatedFloat(weightInvestorBehaviorHerdingInput) / 100; const vixLowThreshold = getValidatedFloat(vixLowThresholdInput); const vixHighThreshold = getValidatedFloat(vixHighThresholdInput); // --- Normalize Scores for PDF --- let scoreEconomicOutlook = scale1to5To0to100(economicOutlook); let scoreMarketPerformance = scale1to5To0to100(marketPerformance); let scoreCorporateEarningsExpectations = scale1to5To0to100(corporateEarningsExpectations); let scoreMediaSocialMediaBuzz = scale1to5To0to100(mediaSocialMediaBuzz); let scorePersonalFinancialOutlook = scale1to5To0to100(personalFinancialOutlook); let scoreIpoActivityLevel = scale1to5To0to100(ipoActivityLevel); let scoreMarketVolatility; if (marketVolatility <= vixLowThreshold) { scoreMarketVolatility = 100; } else if (marketVolatility >= vixHighThreshold) { scoreMarketVolatility = 0; } else { scoreMarketVolatility = 100 - (((marketVolatility - vixLowThreshold) / (vixHighThreshold - vixLowThreshold)) * 100); scoreMarketVolatility = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, scoreMarketVolatility)); } let scoreInvestorBehaviorHerding = investorBehaviorHerding; let sentimentIndex = ( (scoreEconomicOutlook * weightEconomicOutlook) + (scoreMarketPerformance * weightMarketPerformance) + (scoreMarketVolatility * weightMarketVolatility) + (scoreCorporateEarningsExpectations * weightCorporateEarningsExpectations) + (scoreMediaSocialMediaBuzz * weightMediaSocialMediaBuzz) + (scorePersonalFinancialOutlook * weightPersonalFinancialOutlook) + (scoreIpoActivityLevel * weightIpoActivityLevel) + (scoreInvestorBehaviorHerding * weightInvestorBehaviorHerding) ); sentimentIndex = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, sentimentIndex)); let sentimentLevel = "Neutral"; let interpretation = "Retail investor sentiment is currently neutral. This suggests a balanced outlook without extreme fear or greed. Continue to monitor market and economic developments closely."; let implication = "Balanced market conditions. May not present strong contrarian opportunities."; if (sentimentIndex >= 80) { sentimentLevel = "Extreme Greed"; interpretation = "Retail investor sentiment is characterized by extreme greed. This often signals that the market is overbought and due for a correction. Exercise extreme caution."; implication = "Potential contrarian sell signal. High risk of market downturn."; } else if (sentimentIndex >= 60) { sentimentLevel = "Greed"; interpretation = "Retail investor sentiment indicates greed. While markets may continue to rise, this level suggests increasing complacency and potential overvaluation. Be selective with new investments."; implication = "Caution advised. Consider taking profits or hedging positions."; } else if (sentimentIndex <= 20) { sentimentLevel = "Extreme Fear"; interpretation = "Retail investor sentiment is at extreme fear levels. This often occurs at market bottoms, presenting potential buying opportunities for long-term investors. However, short-term volatility may persist."; implication = "Potential contrarian buy signal. High reward potential, but requires patience."; } else if (sentimentIndex <= 40) { sentimentLevel = "Fear"; interpretation = "Retail investor sentiment is driven by fear. Markets may be undervalued or oversold. Opportunities might emerge, but continued volatility is likely. Focus on quality assets."; implication = "Consider accumulating positions selectively. Market may be near a bottom."; } // PDF Content Setup doc.setFontSize(22); doc.setTextColor(30, 64, 138); // Dark Blue doc.text("Retail Investor Sentiment Report", 105, 20, null, null, "center"); doc.setFontSize(12); doc.setTextColor(55, 65, 81); // Gray-700 let y = 30; // Sentiment Inputs Section doc.setFontSize(16); doc.setTextColor(30, 64, 138); // Dark Blue doc.text("1. Sentiment Inputs", 20, y += 15); doc.setFontSize(12); doc.setTextColor(55, 65, 81); // Gray-700 doc.autoTable({ startY: y + 5, head: [['Factor', 'Input Value']], body: [ ['Economic Outlook (1-5)', economicOutlook.toFixed(0)], ['Recent Market Performance (1-5)', marketPerformance.toFixed(0)], ['Market Volatility (VIX Index, points)', marketVolatility.toFixed(0)], ['Corporate Earnings Expectations (1-5)', corporateEarningsExpectations.toFixed(0)], ['Media & Social Media Buzz (1-5)', mediaSocialMediaBuzz.toFixed(0)], ['Personal Financial Outlook (1-5)', personalFinancialOutlook.toFixed(0)], ['IPO Activity Level (1-5)', ipoActivityLevel.toFixed(0)], ['Investor Behavior - Herding Tendency (0-100)', investorBehaviorHerding.toFixed(0)] ], theme: 'grid', styles: { fillColor: [243, 244, 246] }, headStyles: { fillColor: [59, 130, 246], textColor: [255, 255, 255] }, margin: { left: 20, right: 20 } }); y = doc.autoTable.previous.finalY; // Weighting & Parameters Section doc.setFontSize(16); doc.setTextColor(30, 64, 138); doc.text("2. Weighting & Parameters", 20, y += 15); doc.setFontSize(12); doc.setTextColor(55, 65, 81); doc.autoTable({ startY: y + 5, head: [['Factor', 'Weight (%)']], body: [ ['Economic Outlook', (weightEconomicOutlook * 100).toFixed(0)], ['Market Performance', (weightMarketPerformance * 100).toFixed(0)], ['Market Volatility', (weightMarketVolatility * 100).toFixed(0)], ['Corporate Earnings Expectations', (weightCorporateEarningsExpectations * 100).toFixed(0)], ['Media & Social Media Buzz', (weightMediaSocialMediaBuzz * 100).toFixed(0)], ['Personal Financial Outlook', (weightPersonalFinancialOutlook * 100).toFixed(0)], ['IPO Activity Level', (weightIpoActivityLevel * 100).toFixed(0)], ['Investor Behavior (Herding)', (weightInvestorBehaviorHerding * 100).toFixed(0)] ], theme: 'grid', styles: { fillColor: [243, 244, 246] }, headStyles: { fillColor: [59, 130, 246], textColor: [255, 255, 255] }, margin: { left: 20, right: 20 } }); y = doc.autoTable.previous.finalY; // VIX Thresholds doc.setFontSize(16); doc.setTextColor(30, 64, 138); doc.text("3. Volatility (VIX) Scoring Thresholds", 20, y += 15); doc.setFontSize(12); doc.setTextColor(55, 65, 81); doc.autoTable({ startY: y + 5, head: [['Threshold', 'Value (points)']], body: [ ['Low Volatility (Bullish)', vixLowThreshold.toFixed(0)], ['High Volatility (Bearish)', vixHighThreshold.toFixed(0)] ], theme: 'grid', styles: { fillColor: [243, 244, 246] }, headStyles: { fillColor: [59, 130, 246], textColor: [255, 255, 255] }, margin: { left: 20, right: 20 } }); y = doc.autoTable.previous.finalY; // Sentiment Analysis Results Section doc.setFontSize(16); doc.setTextColor(30, 64, 138); doc.text("4. Sentiment Analysis Results", 20, y += 15); doc.setFontSize(12); doc.setTextColor(55, 65, 81); let pdfSentimentColor; if (sentimentLevel === "Extreme Greed") { pdfSentimentColor = [153, 27, 27]; // Dark Red } else if (sentimentLevel === "Greed") { pdfSentimentColor = [234, 88, 12]; // Orange } else if (sentimentLevel === "Fear") { pdfSentimentColor = [59, 130, 246]; // Blue } else if (sentimentLevel === "Extreme Fear") { pdfSentimentColor = [22, 163, 74]; // Green } else { pdfSentimentColor = [75, 85, 99]; // Gray } doc.setTextColor(pdfSentimentColor[0], pdfSentimentColor[1], pdfSentimentColor[2]); doc.text(`Overall Retail Investor Sentiment Index: ${sentimentIndex.toFixed(2)} / 100`, 20, y += 10); doc.text(`Sentiment Level: ${sentimentLevel}`, 20, y += 8); doc.setTextColor(55, 65, 81); doc.setFontSize(12); doc.text("Interpretation:", 20, y += 15); const splitInterpretation = doc.splitTextToSize(interpretation, 170); doc.text(splitInterpretation, 20, y += 7); y += (splitInterpretation.length * 5) + 5; doc.text("Implication:", 20, y += 5); const splitImplication = doc.splitTextToSize(implication, 170); doc.text(splitImplication, 20, y += 7); y += (splitImplication.length * 5) + 5; doc.setFontSize(10); doc.setTextColor(107, 114, 128); const disclaimer = "Note: This Retail Investor Sentiment Index is a simplified model based on user inputs and assumed relationships. Actual investor sentiment is influenced by a vast array of complex and often irrational factors, including real-time market data, news events, social media trends, and individual psychological biases. This tool is for illustrative and educational purposes only and should not be used as a sole basis for investment decisions. Investing in financial markets involves substantial risk."; const splitDisclaimer = doc.splitTextToSize(disclaimer, 170); doc.text(splitDisclaimer, 20, y += 15); doc.save('Retail_Investor_Sentiment_Report.pdf'); }); // Initialize the first tab as active on load activateTab(0); checkTotalWeights(); // Initial check for weights });
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