Commodity Futures Curve Analyzer 📉
- 1. Input Curve Data
- 2. Visualize & Analyze
- 3. Explanation & Export
Input Futures Curve Data
Curve Data Points (Enter in chronological order for best results):
Curve Visualization & Analysis
Curve for:
Analysis Date:
Input data in Tab 1 to see the chart.
Curve Shape Analysis:
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Understanding Futures Curves & Export
What is a Commodity Futures Curve?
A commodity futures curve (also known as a forward curve) is a graph that plots the futures prices of a commodity against their respective contract expiration dates. It provides a snapshot of market expectations for the price of a commodity at various points in the future, at a single point in time.
Key Curve Shapes:
Contango: An upward-sloping futures curve where prices for distant delivery months are higher than prices for nearer months. This can indicate that the market expects the commodity price to rise over time, or it may reflect carrying costs (storage, insurance, financing) for holding the physical commodity.
Backwardation (Inverted Curve): A downward-sloping futures curve where prices for distant delivery months are lower than prices for nearer months. This often signals current tightness in supply relative to demand, a high convenience yield for holding the physical commodity, or market expectations of falling prices.
Flat Curve: Prices are relatively similar across different contract months, indicating market expectations of price stability or a balance between supply, demand, and carrying costs.
Mixed Curve: The curve may exhibit both contango and backwardation characteristics across different contract months, often influenced by seasonality or specific market events.